Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda (BNR) yatangaje ko yazamuye igipimo cy’inyungu fatizo (Central Bank Rate – CBR) cyakurikizwaga na banki z’ubucuruzi, ikigeza kuri 6.75% kivuye kuri 6.5%. Iki cyemezo cyafashwe na Komite ishinzwe Politiki y’Ifaranga (MPC) hagamijwe gukumira izamuka ry’ibiiciro no gukomeza gushyigikira ihungabana ry’ubukungu bw’igihugu.
Mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2025, umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ibiciro (inflation) wagumye mu mbago ngenderwaho za 2% na 8%. Iteganyamibare ryerekana ko mu mwaka wa 2025 izagera kuri 7.1% mbere yo kugabanuka ikagera kuri 5.6% mu 2026. Gusa, MPC ivuga ko aya mateganyirize ashobora guhungabanywa n’ingaruka z’ikirere zitari nziza, ihindagurika ry’ibiciro ku isoko mpuzamahanga ndetse n’impinduka mu bucuruzi mpuzamahanga.
Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bukomeje kwiyongera
Ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwazamutse ku rwego rwo hejuru mu gihembwe cya mbere cya 2025, aho GDP yazamutse ku kigero cya 7.8%. Iri zamuka ryatewe n’umusaruro ukomeye mu rwego rwa serivisi n’inganda, ndetse no ku musaruro uringaniye mu buhinzi.
Mu gihembwe cya kabiri cya 2025, ibipimo by’ubukungu bigaragaza ko igipimo cy’izamuka cyakomeje kugenda neza, aho Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) yazamutseho 12.5% ugereranyije n’umwaka wabanje, bitewe n’inkunga ikomeye y’amabanki y’ubucuruzi mu ishoramari.
Icyuho cy’ubucuruzi cyaragabanutse
Ibicuruzwa u Rwanda rwohereje mu mahanga byiyongereyeho 15.5% mu gihembwe cya kabiri 2025, bigizwemo uruhare n’izamuka ry’agaciro k’ikawa n’amabuye y’agaciro ku isoko mpuzamahanga.
Ibicuruzwa bitari bisanzwe byoherezwa mu mahanga nabyo byazamutse cyane, harimo ibikomoka ku buhinzi n’ibiribwa nk’amavuta yo guteka n’ifu y’ingano, byazamutseho 31.1%.
Ku rundi ruhande, ibyoherejwe byongera koherezwa mu karere (re-exports) byaragabanutseho 13.2% bitewe no kugabanuka k’umusaruro wifashishwaga mu bihugu by’akarere. Ibicuruzwa byatumijwe mu mahanga byazamutseho 3.3%, ahanini bitewe n’izamuka ry’ibiribwa by’ingenzi, ibikoresho by’ubwubatsi n’ibinyabiziga. Ibi byatumye icyuho cy’ubucuruzi kigabanuka ku rugero rwa 2.9% ugereranyije n’umwaka wa 2024.
Ihindagurika ry’agaciro k’ifaranga n’inyungu ku nguzanyo
Ifaranga ry’u Rwanda (FRW) ryagabanutseho 2.96% imbere y’idolari ya Amerika kugeza mu mpera za Kamena 2025, ugereranyije na 3.73% ryagabanutse mu 2024. Ibi byatewe n’ihinduka ryiza ry’ubucuruzi bw’u Rwanda n’imbaraga nke z’idolari ku isoko mpuzamahanga.
Mu gihe kimwe, igipimo cy’inyungu mu isoko ry’imari cyaragabanutse, aho interbank rate yamanutse kuri 6.31% uvuye kuri 8.14% mu 2024. Igipimo cy’inyungu ku nguzanyo cyagabanutse kigera kuri 15.97% mu gihembwe cya kabiri 2025, kivuye kuri 16.25% mu 2024.
Imiterere y’izamuka ry’ibiciro
Mu gihembwe cya kabiri 2025, izamuka ry’ibiciro rusange ryagumye kuri 6.7%. Core inflation yagabanutse ikagera kuri 5.6%, mu gihe ibiciro by’ibiribwa bishya byazamutse bitewe n’ibihe by’ihinga. Ibiciro by’ingufu nabyo byazamutseho gato, cyane cyane ku mabuye y’imyotsi ikoreshwa mu guteka.
BNR iteganya ko mu 2025 izamuka ry’ibiciro rizagera ku 7.1% mbere yo kugabanuka rikagera kuri 5.6% mu 2026.
Icyemezo cya MPC
Komite ishinzwe Politiki y’Ifaranga yafashe icyemezo cyo kuzamura igipimo cy’inyungu fatizo ku 6.75%, ikigero gifatwa nk’icyo gufasha kugumana izamuka ry’ibiciro mu mbago ngenderwaho. MPC yavuze ko izakomeza gukurikirana uko ubukungu bwo mu gihugu no ku rwego mpuzamahanga buhagaragara, kandi yiteguye gufata ibindi byemezo bikenewe mu rwego rwo kurinda ihungabana ry’ubukungu.
